Model Library

01 Index insurance

Price Index Insurance
Indian Soybean & Maize.

Client
Insurtech startup
Location
India
Type of Risk
Agricultural commodity price volatility
Service
Underwriting parametric price index insurance
Commodities
Soybean, Maize

Problem: Banks lacked an effective way to protect agricultural loan portfolios from severe commodity-price declines, leaving lending capacity, capital, and portfolio stability exposed.

Solution: A parametric price-index policy linked transparent market triggers to predefined payouts, supported by climate-aware modelling and loss-ratio-based pricing.

Impact: Parametric cover can unlock more lending, stabilize portfolios, protect bank capital, and reduce the risk that agricultural losses contribute to bank insolvency.

The challenge

The client needed to protect a bank's agricultural loan portfolio from sharp commodity-price declines — but conventional hedging instruments were unavailable or poorly matched to the underlying exposure.

  • No practical hedging instrument existed for a diversified agricultural loan pool.
  • Fragmented, heterogeneous data made model selection and validation difficult.
  • The contract had to satisfy a fixed target loss-ratio corridor.
  • Price outcomes reflected interacting climate anomalies and economic shocks.
Read more about the challenge

Agricultural lenders face a structural mismatch: loan performance can deteriorate when crop prices fall, yet the exposure is distributed across borrowers, regions, harvest cycles, and local market conditions. A standard futures hedge may not exist, may lack sufficient liquidity, or may not track the portfolio closely enough.

The analytical challenge was therefore broader than forecasting price. The design needed to distinguish insurable index risk from borrower-specific credit risk, reconcile datasets with different frequencies and coverage, and remain stable under rare but severe market conditions. At the same time, the premium and payout profile had to meet the client's non-negotiable loss-ratio requirement.

The solution

We designed and underwrote a parametric price-index policy that converts observable market movements into predefined payouts — creating a transparent alternative to an unavailable conventional hedge.

  • Structured price-index triggers and payout terms around the loan pool's risk profile.
  • Used flexible AI-assisted model ensembles to integrate heterogeneous market and climate data.
  • Modelled the full loss-ratio distribution, not only a single expected value.
  • Separated the marginal influence of drought signals from wider economic shocks.
Read more about the methodology

The contract was calibrated by testing combinations of index triggers, attachment points, payout slopes, and limits. Each structure was evaluated against the target loss-ratio corridor so the client could compare protection, premium adequacy, and tail exposure on a consistent basis.

The modelling framework combined commodity-price histories with climate indicators, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Scenario and return-period analysis translated the resulting loss distribution into underwriting terms, while marginal-impact analysis helped explain how much of the price signal was associated with drought conditions versus broader market forces.

Deliverables

The engagement produced a complete underwriting package that the client could use to price, explain, and extend the proposed cover.

  • Contract design: Parametric triggers, attachment points, payout slopes, and limits aligned with the loan portfolio's exposure.
  • Pricing framework: Trigger and rate-on-line combinations consistent with the target loss-ratio corridor.
  • Risk analytics: Full loss-ratio distributions and exceedance probabilities for 1-in-10-year and 1-in-20-year return periods.
  • Climate attribution: Evidence showing that the SPI drought signal materially improved model fit and helped explain price events.
  • Reusable model architecture: A soybean underwriting framework adapted to maize with minimal rework.

Illustration: one soybean contract

Fig. 01

Bar chart: the average loss ratio falls from 83% to 55% to 41% as the premium rises from 2% to 3% to 4% of the limit.
Contract with trigger 42 and limit 6.

Fig. 02

Curve of the chance of a payout: about 7.6% for any payout, 1.8% above 2, and near zero above 4, up to the limit of 6.
Ten-day moving-average contract, November to April, trigger 42, limit 6.

Fig. 03

Illustrative chart: a soybean price index’s observed history and simulated future scenarios, the lowest of which falls below a payout trigger set under today’s price.
Illustrative data

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